2026 trade predictions strong amid barriers, DP World reveals

Despite rising trade barriers and growing policy uncertainty, global supply chain and logistics executives remain confident about 2026. According to DP World’s Global Trade Observatory Annual Outlook Report, 94% of respondents expect trade growth to match or surpass 2025, with more than half predicting faster growth than last year.

Source: Supplied

The survey, conducted ahead of the World Economic Forum in Davos, included 3,500 senior executives across eight industries and 19 countries. Findings show 54% expect trade growth to accelerate in 2026, 40% foresee growth remaining steady, and only 25% anticipate negative impacts on their business.

This optimism contrasts with some macro projections. The IMF forecasts that global trade by volume could slow to 2.3% in 2026, down from an estimated 3.6% in 2025.

Europe (22%) and China (17%) were cited as the regions with the greatest trade growth potential, followed by Asia Pacific (14%) and North America (13%).

Sultan Ahmed bin Sulayem, group chairman and CEO of DP World, said: "Global trade is becoming increasingly complex, not less so. Our role is clear: to keep trade moving by understanding where friction exists, anticipating where it may emerge next, and investing in the infrastructure, capabilities and partnerships that help our customers operate more efficiently and reliably."

Margareta Drzeniek, managing partner at Horizon Group, added: “What we’re seeing is confidence with contingency plans. Executives are embedding resilience into strategy by diversifying suppliers, reassessing routes and adding options, because volatility is now the baseline. Those best positioned will be the ones who can turn those resilience plans into measurable performance."

How companies are responding

Executives are redesigning supply chains and trade routes to cope with volatility:

• Resilience as strategy: Supplier diversification (51%), higher inventories (44%), and friend-shoring (36%).
• Route agility increases: 26% plan to use new routes, 23% are evaluating them. Decisions are motivated by cost savings (38%), improved connectivity/inland infrastructure (36%), and faster customs clearance (35%).
• Border friction remains a choke point: 60% identify customs clearance as a leading cause of delays. Companies are also investing in warehousing and logistics hubs (39%), road networks (36%), and customs processing infrastructure (36%).

The DP World GTO is a data- and insights-led platform providing actionable intelligence on global trade. Its 2026 Annual Outlook draws on a proprietary survey of 3,500 executives across eight industries and 19 countries, conducted with Geneva-based Horizon Group.