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Ipsos pre-election projections on the mark

Ipsos in South Africa has proved its research accuracy through recent pre-election polls that have been conducted by the company. At its latest release of its poll findings (released Friday 2 May), the poll suggested that at a moderate voter turnout, ANC would garner 63% of the votes, and the DA 22%.
Latest released findings from Ipsos:

All sample surveys are subject to a margin of error, determined by sample size, response rate and sampling methodology used. The margin of error of the Ipsos Pulse of the People is 1,67 for the sample as a whole (sample of 3,730)*

Thus, the national election results will probably be as follows:
 Probable percentage supportAccounting for the margin of error, the  final result will be between...Actual Election Results
ANC63%61% and 65%ANC: 62.15%
DA22%20% and 24%DA: 22.23%
EFF5%3% and 7%EFF: 6.35%
Other parties together10%- 

*To illustrate this, if the response rate is 50%, the "true answer" can be 1.67 percentage points higher or lower than the given results, in 95 out of every 100 cases.

One of the factors influencing the accuracy of the numbers is the voter turnout. "Based on various scenarios of voter turnout, we put forward that ANC would end up with between 61% and 65% of the vote," states Mari Harris, head of political research at Ipsos. "The DA looked set to end up with between 20.7% and 23.3% of the vote. The actual voter turnout at this election was 74% - which falls into the 'moderate' category."

"As a research company with one of our specialisations being public affairs and social opinion, we could not be more pleased that our results have aligned exactly with the actual election results," states CEO of Ipsos, Harald Hasselmann. "It speaks to the thoroughness and accuracy of our research and fieldwork operations. Given the many predictions made by many political analysts about the ANC ending up with less than 60%, we are proud to say that it is our research that provided the most accurate projections."

A total of 3,730 personal face-to-face interviews were conducted with randomly selected adult South Africans. The interviews were done in the homes and home languages of respondents. Trained quantitative fieldworkers from all population groups were responsible for the interviewing, which took place from 20 February to 28 March 2014. This methodology ensured that the results are representative of the views of the universe and that findings can be weighted and projected to the universe - i.e. South Africans 18 years and older.

Interviews were done using CAPI (Computer Assisted Personal Interviewing) and all results were collated and analysed in an aggregate format to protect the identity and confidentiality of respondents.

All sample surveys are subject to a margin of error, determined by sample size, sampling methodology and response rate. The sample error for the sample as a whole at a 95% confidence level is a maximum of 1,67%. When analysing the results for smaller parties or overall Provincial party share in particular on an individual party basis the margin of error will be higher.

About Ipsos: The Home of Researchers

Ipsos is an innovative, entrepreneurial, client-focused organisation, providing research services to clients on a global basis. We set ourselves high standards and aim to work collaboratively in partnership with our teams in order to service our clients most effectively.

Ipsos is proud to be the only global market research company that is still controlled and operated by researchers. We aim to remain the natural home for intellectually curious and passionate researchers.

Our goal is simple: to be our clients' preferred research partners in our areas of specialisation, methodologies and processes. We want our clients to be proud and pleased to work with us - and we want each one of us to be proud and pleased to offer our clients high quality standards, efficiency and intelligence.

14 May 2014 10:04