Survey hints at brighter year-end despite weak construction activity
The uptick in sentiment contrasts with a significant decline in activity. “While the activity index weakened considerably in 3Q2025 compared to the previous quarter, it remains close to its long-term average.
"Importantly, the index has held relatively high levels in recent quarters. Since it reflects annual growth, base effects may explain the lower reading. However, if this weaker level persists over the next two or three quarters, it would be cause for concern,” noted Siphamandla Mkhwanazi, senior economist at FNB.
According to Statistics South Africa (Stats SA), the real value of construction works contracted by only 0.3% on an annual basis in 2Q2025, from a 3.2% decline in 1Q2025. The 3Q2025 survey results suggest a slightly more pronounced decrease in 3Q2025. “Overall, the sector is still on track for a much-improved performance in full year 2025 compared with the 6.1% drop recorded in 2024,” said Mkhwanazi.
“Respondents’ expectations for work next quarter, together with the rating of insufficient new demand as a constraint to business operations (a proxy for order books), reiterate that the availability of work is not yet a major concern. Although the latter rose to 71 – its highest level since 4Q2022 – this merely marks a return to the long-term average.”
Cautious optimism ahead
In conclusion: The FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index gained two points to register a level of 43 in 3Q2025.
The business mood improved despite a marked weakness in activity growth. However, this is likely due to base effects and actual spending on civil construction is unlikely to be as downbeat.
"Looking ahead, it remains prudent to monitor the risks to sentiment in the sector over the short to medium term. These include persistent inefficiencies in tender adjudication, payment processes, project management, and crime, as highlighted by survey respondents.
"On a positive note, recent progress with key reforms in energy and logistics is encouraging, although it may take time to translate into increased activity in the sector," remarked Mkhwanazi.