Black Friday 2025 set to break records as South African retail surges

In 2022, South Africans spent over R3bn during Black Friday, with online card-not-present transactions rising by 31%. This increased to R3.2bn in 2024, continuing the trend of an 11% year-on-year increase observed by First National Bank (FNB). The bank notes that, on Black Friday in 2024, FNB processed 20 million card transactions, with a maximum of 690 transactions per second. The bank reports that it continued to see an upward trend in FNB Virtual Card usage, with a 59% year-over-year increase in customer spend on Black Friday.

Dr Farai Nyika, academic programme leader, Mancosa School of Public Administration, points out that after a few years of embracing Black Friday, we can now see the actual economic impact of Black Friday shopping in South Africa. "As South Africa braces itself for another Black Friday storm next week Friday (28 November), the economic boost to the country could be significant," says Dr Nyika.

Major hype

As shown in the banking statistics above, consumer spending on Black Friday increases significantly.

The hype surrounding Black Friday is second only to the buildup to Christmas; however, the period from 16 to 24 December marks the peak of the shopping season in South Africa. The only event that comes close to Black Friday is the Back-to-School shopping rush.

"Mancosa has observed that the services, tourism, and hospitality sectors often offer special deals during this period to attract visitors. This is largely because November is considered an off-peak season, as many South Africans are saving for the December holidays. However, taking short holidays in November has its advantages, as accommodation and resorts are generally less crowded and more affordable. December rates are usually double or more than what you would pay in November," says Dr Nyika.

Informal economy boost

While many may assume that the formal retail sector benefits the most from Black Friday, Dr Nyika points out that there are surprising statistics regarding financial inclusion from the informal sector, particularly around Black Friday.

"Contrary to common belief, South Africa has relatively high levels of financial and digital inclusion, even within the informal market sector. These communities are often highly organised along social lines, forming close-knit WhatsApp and Facebook groups that buy in bulk to maximise November discounts. The informal township retail market operates in close connection with formal wholesale distributors, and mobile payments have become increasingly common across the country. For example, I have personally used handheld point-of-sale devices when making payments in spaza shops, as I prefer digital payments over cash to track my personal spending better. Digital payments also offer greater security for informal traders, as they reduce the need to keep large amounts of cash on hand," says Dr Nyika.

However, Dr Nyika adds that barriers to full inclusion remain, and one of the biggest is the continued prevalence of cash as the preferred means of payment for many customers in the informal sector. "Cash-based transactions limit participation in online specials and e-commerce promotions typically associated with Black Friday. Additionally, informal traders are constrained by their limited capacity to hold large inventories, unlike major retail chains in South Africa. This reduces their ability to secure bulk discounts from wholesalers and, consequently, restricts the level of savings that can be passed on to spaza shop customers," says Dr Nyika.

Leveraging the hype

After a considerable period of sluggish economic growth, South Africa is recovering from a tough period, with consumer spending showing some signs of increasing. Dr Nyika points out that this will be a signal for retailers to capitalise on this growth and recover ground lost since 2020.

"Black Friday in 2025 is likely to be one of the strongest in years, as we are now several years past the demand slump caused by Covid. While inflation spiked in the first year after the pandemic, it has been trending downward over the past 18 months. Retailers are well-positioned to take full advantage of this more favourable economic environment," says Dr Nyika.

The statistics from Black Friday 2024 show that online consumerism is continuing its impressive growth, which will only become stronger in 2025.

"Mobile commerce and digital platforms are critical in South Africa, given how widely technology is used. Many South Africans hold more than one bank account and own smartphones or laptops, which they use regularly to conduct transactions. The shift to a digital economy accelerated during the pandemic, and many jobs created through the Covid-era gig economy still exist today. These platforms enable small businesses, including township retailers and informal traders, to reach a significantly larger customer base than they could otherwise. Considering that around 40% of South Africa's population is under 24, it's clear that the online market is crucial for the survival of small businesses. The 25–54 age group is similar in size and represents the most important consumers for Black Friday and similar sales events, thanks to their purchasing power and decision-making capacity," says Dr Nyika.

He adds that Black Friday is an excellent indicator of returning purchasing power. If we see strong sales over the period, then we know that South Africans are feeling optimistic about the economy, and we are turning the corner of tough economic times.

What can we expect from Black Friday?

The statistics from the banking sector indicate that this year's Black Friday event is expected to be the most profitable yet. Dr Nyika says that this will be leveraged in several ways.

"Dynamic pricing, AI-driven personalisation, customer experience & predictive analytics will all be utilised this Black Friday. However, some challenges may impact the true economic power of the event, particularly in the informal sector. High-speed internet and mobile connectivity in the townships will enhance customers' ability to engage in e-commerce. However, as some of these websites drain data, bottlenecks will develop. In addition, online shopping can take even longer than in-store purchases, as there are many more options available to you. Many informal traders and township markets do not have an easy returns policy, unlike mass market retailers. This restricts sales," says Nyika.

Despite this, he says that retailers will end the day smiling and the economy will receive a massive boost.