Food inflation steady at 4.4% despite rising meat prices in January 2026
Lower fuel prices helped offset increases in core and food inflation. Food prices remained flat at 4.4% year-on-year, despite sharp rises in meat prices, according to analysis by Paul Makube, senior agricultural economist at FNB Commercial.
Meat prices drive food inflation
Beef was the biggest driver in the meat complex, with beef rump steak prices rising by 35% (+R56.96/kg) year-on-year at R219.93/kg, followed by beef chuck (+31.6% year-on-year; +R34.48/kg) at R143.65/kg.
In pig meat cuts, pork chops rose by 22.8% year-on-year (+R20.84/kg) at R112.22/kg, while pork ribs and pork fillet advanced by 16.3% year-on-year (+R15.84/kg) at R113.13/kg and 13.1% (+R13.91/kg) at R119.79/kg, respectively.
The FMD-induced supply disruptions were the primary catalyst behind the sharp uptick in prices for these meat categories.
"We expect prices to remain elevated near term and then decelerate in the medium term, if efforts to reduce the outbreak incidences by more than 70 within 12 months in the high-risk provinces through systematic vaccination and preservation of the FMD-free provinces, through buffer vaccination and strict movement controls succeed," Makube said.
While the announcement of national vaccination is most welcome, it remains a long-term strategy to regain FMD-free status.
Other food categories and outlook
After a long wait, the benefit of lower grain prices over the past seven months has started to filter through to consumers. Cereal inflation slowed to 0.6% year-on-year, further dropping by 0.9% month-on-month in January 2026. Maize prices fell by 48% year-on-year (-R3,295/t) to an average of R3,512/t.
Higher carryover stock, favourable rains, a stronger rand, and a bulging global supply outlook continue to weigh heavily on maize futures.
Vegetable inflation remained in deflationary mode after falling 3.2% year-on-year, reflecting increased availability. Fruits and nuts inflation decreased for the fourth consecutive month to -6.3% year-on-year and -0.1% month-on-month, reflecting seasonal downturns in demand.
“The continued moderation in consumer inflation, coupled with upside risks from volatile food prices, reinforces expectations for further rate cuts by the South African Reserve Bank,” Makube said.