But anti-fracking groups say the optimism is based on hypothetical riches and ignores the high cost and potential environmental and health devastation.
With scientists estimating there are underground shale gas deposits in a large expanse of land, fracking would be a dream come true for the Eastern Cape, premier Phumulo Masualle's spokesman, Sizwe Kupelo, said after the provincial government received the first report based on research in the study.
The research, commissioned by the Eastern Cape government, was done by scientists from NMMU and Africa Earth Observatory Network.
The aim was to understand fracking and what the province could do to prepare for it.
But Treasure the Karoo Action Group (TKAG) chief executive Jonathan Deal said any permission granted for exploration or drilling would be met with swift legal action.
"I don't care if I have to lay a criminal charge every day, I will do it," Deal said.
"The regulations for fracking in South Africa are being challenged in court and this court case will take at least another two years to finalise."
Senior scientist Dr Stefan Cramer said the dream of shale gas in the Karoo region was based on rising energy prices, and the question was not how much gas was in the ground, but how much could be produced at reasonable cost.
"That is an entirely different question," Cramer said.
He is scientific adviser to the South African Faith Communities' Environmental Institute.
"Shale gas development in the Karoo would only make sense at vastly increased energy prices," Cramer said.
"Do we want that? Does the Eastern Cape government want that?"
Cramer said to mine for gas in the Karoo would cost between $80 (R1250) and $100 (R1560) a unit (the equivalent of a barrel of oil), and at current energy prices, with Brent crude trading at around $47 (R752) a barrel, would be non-profitable.
At those levels, most other industrial activities would cease to be feasible in South Africa, he said.
Kupelo said while the province was proceeding with caution, it was upbeat about the estimates of shale gas and believed this could be the economic boost and employment turnaround the Eastern Cape needed.
"We did not want an oil company doing the study. This is part of our efforts to restore trust in shale gas mining," he said.
Kupelo said the provincial government was investing heavily in road (R5bn) and water (R3bn) infrastructure in anticipation of fracking.
The researchers warned in the study that international experience had highlighted a critical need to ensure all necessary legislative and regulatory structures were in place before a shale gas industry was launched - especially as they foresaw major socio-economic and health effects on the population of the Karoo.
The study said research would be extended to the eastern part of the province, around Bhisho, where the potential for shale gas was expected to be high.
Kupelo said the provincial government was satisfied that the study had not found any major risks so far. But it was sensitive to the massive "deficit of trust" that existed around fracking and was trying to address it.
The report included suggestions that the province start addressing a serious shortage of technical skills, as well as infrastructure. Kupelo said the study was just the first step.
Deal, who won the Goldman Award for his work in opposing fracking in the Karoo, said scientific estimates of shale gas deposits, especially in the US had so far proven to be out by as much as 96%. He said the same was happening in South Africa. Although initial estimates were that there were 485 trillion cubic feet (TCF) of shale gas in the country, that was downgraded to 390TCF in 2011 and to 20 to 30 TCF in 2013.
Last week, a study published by the Karoo Research Initiative suggested the potential for shale gas was limited.
Deal said companies could buy gas offshore much more cheaply than they would pay for it from the Karoo. Now, Deal said, TKAG and AfriForum were challenging the government's fracking regulations in the high court as they were not suitable for South Africa. "They are designed for American conditions," he said.
Studies from other South African scientists into potential gas reserves in the Karoo were expected later this year, he said.
"Fracking is past its sell-by date. The Eastern Cape government can dream all they like," Deal said.
AfriForum local government affairs head Marcus Pawson said a recent Australian study had found fracking to be unsustainable in terms of job creation.
Cramer warned that the Eastern Cape government's optimism was based on hypothetical hope balanced out by proven dangers. "The environmental damage from fracking operations is well established by research.
"Excessive water consumption and the release - accidental or otherwise - of toxic waste water would have devastating impacts on aquatic and terrestrial life in the Karoo," Cramer said.
"There will be damage to the landscape, especially from access infrastructure like roads, pipelines and transmission lines.
"The damage to soil in the Karoo would be almost permanent, as recovery takes hundreds of years."
Also, toxic groundwater would be a huge public health problem.
Cramer said that to create dreams of a gas boom was unacceptable and expectations had to be managed.
Source: Herald
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