This is according to PG Lombard, sales manager at Elanco, a global company that develops and markets products to improve animal health and food animal production in more than 75 countries.
"There is a dramatic decline in the quality and number of cattle coming into the feedlots. In the continued face of the drought, beef supply could drop by 30%-40% this year alone. When drought relief comes in the form of normal rainfall patterns, it could take another 18-24 months for farmers to recover and replenish their breeding herds, creating a deficit on the supply side. The next two years will be marked by a shortage of beef for local demand and export, the cost of beef will escalate dramatically and the economic viability of many cattle farmers and feedlots remains uncertain," says PG.
The lack of quality grazing land means beef producers have to supplement animal diets with expensive feeds, which are already in short supply. In many areas water has to be transported in at huge cost.
The price of yellow maize used for animal feed has rocketed by 93% from R1946/ton in Jan 2015, to R3,757/ton at the beginning of January 2016. South Africa may have to import an additional five million tons of maize due to widespread crop failures. High maize prices are expected to persist until 2017 according to Grain SA. To put a reality check on just how serious the drought conditions are, the highest amount of maize ever imported by SA in a year was only 1,2 million tons in 2007/8.
"In the face of soaring costs and a shortage of food and water, farmers are forced to cut back on nucleus herds and breeding cattle to margins as low as 10% in a bid to stay afloat. Typically, farmers will keep 30-40% of their herds for breeding for the next season, but under the current conditions, this is simply not possible. Beyond the economics of sustaining these animals, there are also real concerns regarding animal welfare. In the face of starvation and no water, many farmers face the unenviable decision of having to cull," explains PG.
According to market statistics, South Africa slaughters around 3.5 million cattle each year to meet the local and export demand for beef. However, cattle placements into feedlots have dropped dramatically over the last few months and continue to do so. "We'll be lucky if we can produce two million animals for beef production this year. The knock-on effects of the drought economically and socially are significant for SA," says PG.
The drought has been particularly cruel to the beef cattle industry. The Red Meat Producers Organisation (RPO) stated in November 2015 that at the time in KZN, more than 40,000 cattle have died and serious losses of livestock are currently being experienced in the emerging sector countrywide. In the heat conditions, cattle consume between 40 and 50 litres of water per head daily, rendering the logistics of water supply very difficult.
Farmers have scaled down to nucleus herds and high costs are being incurred for feed and water supply. Even with normal rainfall figures, it will take commercial producers between three and four seasons to recover economically. It has a very negative impact on the 1,2 million households that own cattle, sheep and goats and on income and food security, according to the RPO.
High input costs have caused feedlots to lose around 30% revenue per head and, as a result, herd reductions will continue until feed and grazing supplies are restored. This also directly impacts the availability of dairy products as farmers are now sending heifers into feedlots as the cost to sustain them is simply too high.
An aspect that has been highlighted by the drought has been food security in South Africa. Globally and in South Africa, our population is growing and this means greater demands on food production and our resources. The reality is that there is only so much land available for agriculture and only so much water - our resources are finite and already under pressure.
According to a food security report released by the ENOUGH movement spearheaded by Elanco, on the current trajectory, by 2030 we'll require double the planet's resources to meet our food needs. The absolute and undeniable reality is that we have to produce more, and do it with less. This can only be done through innovation in food production.
"Worldwide there have been improvements in beef feeding practices and animal quality through technology and innovation - all of which have been scientifically proven to be safe for both humans and animals. Efficiencies in production must be improved as simply adding more animals to meet growing demand is not the answer to ensuring food security. South Africa's current drought is obvious proof of the strain on our natural resources," adds PG.
A simple example of the importance of technology in food production is that of milk supply. The findings of the 2013 Global Food Forward Analysis estimate that, based on our current productivity path, we won't even have access to a glass of milk a day on average by 2020. By applying technology available to us to produce just a half glass more milk per cow, dairy producers could annually save 66 million cows, 747 million tons of feed, 1.5 SQ km of farmland roughly the size of Alaska, and almost 2.4 trillion litres of water, the annual domestic use of Germany, France and the UK combined.
"We are conflicted as a society in our support of innovation and technology that allows farmers to grow more food using fewer resources. In most instances these conflicts arise from misinformation and sensationalist claims that have absolutely no scientific ground. All consumers have a right to expect safe food produced responsibly and industry has a responsibility when it comes to defining responsible and sustainable production.
Right now South Africa is at a crossroads and as consumers, producers and retailers, we have to invest the time, energy and resources to better understand the impact of technology on food security in the context of people, animals and the environment. There may be far too many unintended consequences of rash decisions on a trajectory that is not so much a given, as it is a warning to change and innovate in how we produce and manage our agricultural resources. This drought is our most telling warning that things have to change and we have to become more efficient," concludes PG.
