The cancellation of Sunday’s Cape Town Marathon on 20 October 2025 didn’t just disappoint 24,000 runners – it sent a troubling signal to international sports tourists about South Africa's event management capabilities.
New research capturing feedback from 518 affected runners, including participants from the USA, Netherlands, Kenya, and the UK, reveals significant concern about Cape Town’s capacity to manage weather risks in a city globally known for its winds.
The tourism mathematics
Consider the numbers: If even 10% of the 24,000 registered runners travelled from outside Cape Town (a conservative estimate based on the research showing 53% of respondents were non-local), that’s 2,400 visitors who invested in flights, accommodation, meals, and activities.
At an average spend of R5,000–R10,000 per visiting runner, the direct economic impact of the cancellation could exceed R15m – before accounting for accompanying family members, extended stays, or other tourism spending.
"Future plans, since Cape Town weather is unpredictable, we need an emergency plan for future. We can't spend so much for flights, accommodation, Uber, food, only to find that we cannot have a race," one runner wrote, articulating the risk calculus international visitors now face.
The reputational risk
Perhaps more concerning than immediate economic losses is the long-term reputational damage. The research, conducted by Cape Town-based Yazi using WhatsApp surveys deployed within 10 hours of cancellation, shows geographic patterns in future participation intent.
Cape Town locals show 61% “definitely returning” in 2026, compared to just:
• 39% in Johannesburg
• 38% in Durban
• 31% in Pretoria
The message is clear: travellers, who bear higher financial risk, are significantly more sceptical about returning.
International perspectives
"I had family from Europe visiting who saved money to do the marathon and prepared for a year to run their first marathon. They are shattered. I think it will be very difficult to convince foreigners to invest in this event if there is a good chance for it to be cancelled," wrote one Cape Town resident whose international relatives made the journey.
Another noted: "Weather conditions globally are not likely to get better. So arrangements need to be made for infrastructure to cope with those conditions."
The implication: Cape Town’s weather is no longer an exotic challenge – it’s a predictable risk that organisers must proactively manage.
The Abbott World marathon Major factor
Multiple runners specifically mentioned Cape Town's candidacy for Abbott World Marathon Major status – the prestigious designation held by only six marathons globally (Boston, London, Berlin, Chicago, New York, Tokyo): "For an Abbott World Major candidate event, I'm truly embarrassed," wrote one runner.
Achieving major status would transform Cape Town Marathon into a bucket-list destination event, driving international tourism and positioning South Africa alongside global sporting capitals. But the research suggests Sunday’s cancellation could jeopardise that ambition.
What went wrong
According to runners, the primary failures weren’t about weather itself, but planning and communication:
• 40% wanted a delayed start rather than outright cancellation
• 36% cited inadequate weather contingency planning
• 20% criticised poor communication (initial announcement didn’t specify wind as the cause)
"Cape Town is a windy city, everyone knows this. The issue could have been mitigated. Today was not the windiest day in the history of Cape Town, and organisers could have planned better," one runner wrote.
The path to recovery
The research offers six strategic recommendations, including implementing delayed start protocols, upgrading wind-resistant infrastructure, and offering flexible resolution options. But the most critical recommendation may be the simplest: give runners agency.
The research found that 67% would have participated if given a choice, suggesting the lack of autonomy – not the safety decision itself – drove frustration.
"Runners who wouldn't have run show the highest future commitment (70%), while those denied their choice show the lowest (46%)," the research notes. "The lesson is clear: autonomy matters as much as safety."
The bottom line
Cape Town Marathon organisers have one year to demonstrate they’ve learned from 2025’s failures. The stakes: not just a single event, but Cape Town’s reputation as a world-class sporting destination.
As one runner summarised: "We care about this race. Show us you care, too."
