US President Donald Trump said on Monday, 23 June 2025 that a "complete and total" ceasefire between Israel and Iran will go into force with a view to ending the conflict between the two nations.
Source: Reuters. People walk near a mural of Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, amid the Iran-Israel conflict, in Tehran, Iran, 23 June, 2025. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency).
"On the assumption that everything works as it should, which it will, I would like to congratulate both countries, Israel and Iran, on having the stamina, courage, and intelligence to end, what should be called, 'The 12 Day War'," Trump wrote on his Truth Social site.
US crude futures tumbled after Trump's announcement, which came after the close of trading on Wall Street. S&P 500 e-mini futures rose when trading resumed, while the US dollar fell.
Hirofumi Suzuki, chief FX strategist at SMBC, Tokyo noted that markets have stabilised post-ceasefire and that the yen may strengthen if peace proves sustainable.
"Financial markets, including the crude oil market, have returned to levels seen before tensions between Israel and Iran began. The same applies to the USD/JPY exchange rate, as the dollar buying driven by the escalating Middle East situation appears to have dissipated.
"Going forward, much will depend on how feasible both Iran and Israel find the ceasefire. If it proceeds as announced, the USD/JPY may gradually shift back toward yen appreciation," he said.
Uncertainty despite de-escalation
Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG, Sydney cautioned, however, that even though the conflict has likely de-escalated, uranium concerns remain, so uncertainty in markets persists.
"We still have some questions around where 400kg of uranium have moved to; that's a massive concern still," he said. "So while I say we've got a big de-escalation, I don't think we're completely out of the woods.
"There is a lot of relief in markets, and things do look like they've de-escalated, but there are still some unanswered questions."
Easing oil-price risks may boost procyclical currencies and support a resumed US dollar downtrend, Ray Attrill, head of FX Strategy at Sydney's National Australia Bank, said.
"There is a lot of momentum behind the reversal in oil-price strength that we're already seeing after Iran’s strike on Qatar, which was clearly choreographed to be symbolic and aimed at domestic consumption.
"To the extent that we’ve seen a reduction in the risk of a renewed oil-price spike, I think that’s a positive from a risk perspective. It removes some of the downside risks to global growth, and I’d expect it to support a further, modest grind higher in procyclical currencies.
"So I think this may encourage the view that the US dollar could resume its downtrend."
Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at New York's Dakota Wealth agrees and forecasts positive market reactions ahead. This, on the back of expectations of a limited Iran nuclear threat, no regime change, and less conflict.
"I think it’s going to be huge. We could have an Iran with very limited nuclear capabilities. We can have a country that is still intact, but with the same regime, so we don’t have to deal with regime change.
"An attack on Israel could certainly be off the table, and there would be no threat to the lives of United States troops. So the market should like that. I expect more positive market reactions tomorrow as we move forward."
"If, in fact, this holds, I would certainly say that's a market positive, and the futures are leaning in that direction," added Art Hogan, chief market strategist; B. Riley Wealth, New York.
"Talk is cheap around these types of things. But certainly, I think the market and the rest of the world would like to see this come to some sort of peaceful resolve and not escalate further than what we've seen already. And I think that this afternoon's market action was leaning in that direction.
"Hopefully this is the next step in that direction, such that we don't have to worry about the next level of escalation, which is never going to be pretty.
"This lifts some of the geopolitical uncertainty surrounding the markets, although, for the most part, equity investors have been kind of shrugging the uncertainty off," concurred Jack Ablin, chief investment officer: Cresset Wealth Advisors; Palm Beach, Florida. "I think it's certainly an incremental positive, but I don't think it's a catalyst for the next bull market."
"It certainly sounds like a significant milestone, and I hope it it's true."
"Part of the problem holding equities back has been higher oil prices and geopolitical risk, and a ceasefire or end to the conflict would go a long way towards solving both those issues," affirmed Jake Dollarhide, chief executive officer at Longbow Asset Management; Tulsa, Oklahoma.
"This may be the match that sparks a continuation of the rally we saw today."
