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#BizTrends | Spend Trend 2026 Part 1: Social engineering and its impact on fraud
One of the most notable consumer stories for 2025 has been the shift in digital. “What we're going to be watching very closely as a key theme going into 2026 is social engineering and the impact that has on fraud,” says Lineshree Moodley, country head of Visa South Africa.
A key theme going into 2026 is social engineering and the impact that has on fraud (Image source: Spend Trend 2026 Report)
Moodley was speaking at the release of the 4th edition of the Discovery Visa Spend Trend Report where she outlined six key trends from the Report.
Six key trends
- Digital becomes option one
Digital has become the first option that consumers are using, and this is largely driven by the fact that it's available, it's safe and it's widely accessible.
“We do see consumers still using cash for certain use cases, such as tipping or taxi payments, But when we look at the broad broadly consumers, if digital payments are available, they are choosing to use it.”
She says that digital wallets now account for 30% of all in-store transactions - a phenomenal growth over the last three to four years.
Her question is, how do we accelerate acceptance of these digital payments, so that they are accepted everywhere?
- Cryptocurrency: Part of household behaviour
The next trend is cryptocurrency. “What's interesting about this is that it's no longer an emerging trend. We actually see cryptocurrency as regular financial household behaviour informing the financial portfolio mix that households are looking at.”
She adds, “We're seeing a lot more disciplined investment in cryptocurrency alongside your traditional assets like properties and shares, etc.”
This trend will accelerate.
- Treatonomics
This trend has emerged globally.
“What this is saying to us is even as consumers see the pressure of rising costs, there are still everyday treats that they are buying. The discretionary spend on micro things is still there."
She gives an example, "You have some consumers that, irrespective of how costs are rising, are still buying the everyday coffee.”
While consumers, she says, are saying, “ I deserve it. I've earned it, so I'm going to get it, they are being a bit more deliberate around as to when the treat happens.”
The most common treats are eating out and takeaways. Payday, discounts and the feeling of having earned a reward are the leading triggers for this type of spending.
This ties into the next trend.
- Events and celebrations: A key driver of big spending
When people spend in an uncertain environment, predictability becomes the anchor that consumers use to make decisions.
“The largest spend in South Africa is being driven by celebration days like Valentine's Day, Mother's Day, and Father's Day, increasing spend by 15% as well as key sporting events or cultural activities with an increase of 12%.”
The report shows a specific peak on Valentine's Day; there was a 277% increase in floral sales.
A key driver is Black Friday, which sees a 57% uplift in spend.
She adds that spend is also longer over long weekends.
- Subscriptions: Access to value
“We've talked about this consistently through the previous spend trends reports, and now we're starting to see that consumers are being a lot more deliberate.”
It is no longer about ownership, but rather about how do I access value?
“We see more and more consumers starting to turn on and off subscriptions as and when they need them. They want the flexibility to upgrade.”
The biggest point she makes under this trend is the growth of AI, with online subscription of AI services such as Perplexity and ChatGPT rising.
- Fraud
As digital transactions increase, so too does fraud.
Moodley says that the tools and products that consumers are using are decreasing fraud. “But when this happens, fraudsters up their effort in terms of social engineering to exploit consumers.
Black Friday is one of the country’s biggest spend events. “If you're shopping during those periods, take a moment to task could be fraudulent."
The most common scam types received by South African in the last 12 months are:
- 46%: Courier and delivery scams
- 41%: Email phishing
- 41%: SMS smishing
- 38%: Investment scams
- 33%: Social media scams
- 32%: Phone calls requesting OTPs.
“But what is also quite encouraging is that we're seeing South African consumers starting to spot red flags a lot better and be more aware.”
About Danette Breitenbach
Danette Breitenbach is a marketing & media editor at Bizcommunity.com. Previously she freelanced in the marketing and media sector, including for Bizcommunity. She was editor and publisher of AdVantage, the publication that served the marketing, media and advertising industry in southern Africa. She has worked extensively in print media, mainly B2B. She has a Masters in Financial Journalism from Wits.
