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The US's recent "America First" protectionist stance has reverberated around the globe, prompting retaliatory tariffs from nations like China and Canada, while trade discussions are underway among 75 other countries. South Africa is feeling the pinch from the US tariff increases, facing the risk of being sidelined from the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). This raises important questions: What purpose do tariffs serve? What does the current landscape for the meat trade look like? And what opportunities and long-term consequences might arise from these policies?
Tariffs can vary based on the type of product, its origin, and the trading relationship between countries and are typically introduced for several reasons:
In the South African context, anti-dumping tariffs on poultry products have been in place to safeguard local producers. However, South African importers are generally concerned about the application of MFN tariffs because they can lead to higher import costs, potentially impacting consumer prices and reducing import variety. Implementing MFN rates, especially when compared to preferential trade agreements like AGOA, can also result in a decline in South Africa’s welfare, particularly for agricultural exports.
South Africa is the largest producer and exporter of beef in Africa, at approximately 35,500 tonnes annually (figures end 2024). Key export markets for beef include China, Egypt, UAE, Jordan, Mozambique, Kuwait, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia.
According to the South African Pork Producers Organisation (SAPPO), in July 2024, South Africa exported 1266,74 tonnes of pork products, mainly to regional countries, with the top three being Mozambique, Namibia, and Lesotho. At the moment, South Africa does not export poultry and is a net importer.
However, the global meat market is highly competitive, and tariffs significantly shape export opportunities.
Other factors that impact export ability are disease outbreaks and control of especially foot and mouth disease.
South Africa relies heavily on meat imports to satisfy its domestic needs, particularly for poultry. Research expert Natalie Cowling notes that chicken is the most imported meat in the country. In 2022, imports of chicken meat reached nearly 291,000 metric tonnes, with meat meal and pork following at about 58,000 and 25.28 metric tonnes, respectively. Brazil remains the key import supplier of mechanically deboned meat (MDM), essential to the production of processed meat, an affordable protein source for lower-income groups. Additionally, approximately 24.31 thousand metric tonnes of pork were brought into the country from 2022 to 2023, mainly from Germany and Spain. (Source.)
International tariffs influence the meat import market in South Africa in several ways:
South Africa accounts for just 0.4% of US imports and 0.3% of its global exports. While this might seem small, the new tariff structure greatly impacts citrus, wine, and macadamia exporters. So, who are the biggest exporting countries to the US?
According to David Miller, consulting chief economist, Decision Innovation Solutions, Canada and Mexico have been the largest suppliers of imported beef to the US and accounted for 52% of the total imports. This is mainly because of proximity and road transportation to the US. Australia, New Zealand, and Nicaragua are also significant suppliers of beef to the US and combined, they account for 36% of the value of beef imports and 36% of the volume. The column below displays the period of 2019–2023. This was the reality at the end of 2024.
Both South African meat importers and exporters face challenges from international tariffs and other factors such as disease outbreaks and the impacts of climate change. However, strategies exist to mitigate these negative effects:
In the long term, global tariff policies will continue to influence South Africa’s meat industry. As global trade agreements evolve, the South African government will need to negotiate favourable tariff terms and pursue trade agreements that benefit both importers and exporters. Additionally, the rise of regional trade agreements within Africa, such as the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), could reduce intra-African tariffs and provide a more favourable environment for trade within the continent.
Sipho Mhaga, customs and excise specialist at SNG Grant Thornton says in a recent article published in BizCommunity: “Despite the challenges, though, South Africa still has a unique opportunity to reposition itself as a leader in African trade and beyond. By embracing digital customs processes, strengthening regional trade networks and leveraging public-private partnerships alongside private sector investment, the country can create a more agile and resilient trade environment – one that evolves from merely reacting to global trade shifts to proactively leveraging the power of trade agreements to help shape its own economic destiny and that of the African continent.”
It is crucial for South African businesses to remain adaptable to changing tariff regimes and to continuously seek opportunities for growth, whether through exports or domestic production.
International trade tariffs profoundly impact South African meat importers and exporters, influencing pricing, market access, and competitiveness. While high tariffs can create significant challenges, they also present opportunities for strategic adaptation. By diversifying markets, adding value to products, and negotiating better trade terms, South African traders can navigate the complexities of global trade tariffs and remain competitive in both local and international markets. It remains important to note that imports and exports should always be balanced to ensure a robust industry, healthy competition and economic development.
Quoting the FAO: “Openness to food trade promotes higher availability, greater diversity and a more stable food supply throughout seasons. It can lower prices and improve access to food. Trade also affects the wider economy, spurring economic growth and accelerating the nutrition transition.”
The Association for Meat Importers and Exporters (AMIE) remains firm in its mission to promote global access, champion fair trade, and facilitate industry dialogue towards reaching this goal.